Comparative Scores Aren’t Always Reliable

Our Aztecs play an important MW game against the Wyoming Cowboys Saturday in Laramie, so you start looking at scores against common opponents as a guideline.

Start with the Aztecs against UNLV in their first MW game. The Rebels were fresh from a convincing 45-20 win over Fresno State. By contrast, the Aztecs had just been upset by South Alabama, 42-24. Counter to comparative scores, the Aztecs whipped Vegas 26-7, and the Rebels’ TD was not against our defense.

Now look at Wyo’s game against UNLV the other day. The Cowboys lost that one, 69-66 in three OTs, just one point short of the all-time FBS scoring record.

So, an easy win for the Aztecs, right? No way. Betting lines favor us by about 8, but this game may well be closer. We are playing in Laramie. The elevation is 7,220 feet, as they are quick to remind you with a big message on the upper deck opposite the visitors’ bench. (OK, Rocky says elevation not a big factor in football, just basketball with more constant action.) And Wyo has been surprisingly good this season. They were 5-0 in the MW before that UNLV game, including an impressive 30-28 upset win over Boise State. They are averaging 44 points a game.

The Cowboys have a balanced offense, with 6’5” QB Josh Allen throwing for 2,216 yards, with 21 TDs and 10 INTs. Running the ball for them is one of the nation’s top RBs, Brian Hill, 6’1”, 219 lbs. Hill has run for 1,417 yards and a 5.7 average. For comparison, DJ Pumphrey tops the country with 1,779. Second to Hill is their QB with a noteworthy 429 yards.

Should be a tight game, and it’s a day game, which I like, starting at 12:30 PT. I expect us to win, of course. But not without a top effort from both our offense and defense.

The Aztecs’ 46-16 win at Nevada was impressive enough to move us into the Top 25 in both polls -- #24 in the AP and #25 in the Coaches Poll. Among the eye-popping stats were the 620 yards of total offense, with 474 on the ground. Penny was the leader this time with 208 yards; DJ next with “only” 198; and Juwan Washington had 70 on just five carries. Even with the big ground game, QB Christian Chapman completed 11 of 16 passes for 146 yards and two TDs. The defensive effort was highlighted by three key INTs against a surprisingly good Wolf Pack passing game. Holding the Pack’s running game to 90 yards was a typical effort by Rocky’s aggressive defense.

Off to Laramie where we hope the temperature will stay above freezing.

Mikah Holder TD; Aztec D (photos by Ernie Anderson)

GO AZTECS!

 

Aztecs Cannot Take Nevada for Granted

Before the season, the Nevada Wolf Pack was picked to be right behind the Aztecs in the Conference West Division. But through nine games they have staggered, and now sit at only 3-6. Even with those losses, including to big-name teams, they’ve had some good games. But they have also had some bad ones, losing games they probably should have won.

Their wins are not impressive, beating Cal Poly, Buffalo and San Jose State. On the other side, two of their losses were to Notre Dame and Purdue. They lost to the Big-Ten Boilermakers only 24-14.

For a recent comparison that may be most meaningful, the Wolf Pack lost to Hawaii, 38-17, the team we beat 55-0 last Saturday. But we all have learned never to make assumptions! One of their impressive games was the 42-34 loss to much improved Wyoming, whose win over Boise State proves their talent.

The Wolf Pack has a balanced attack, with QB Tyler Stewart throwing for 1,161 yards, 9 TDs and only 3 INTs. Nine running backs have rolled up 1,466 yards, with James Butler at the top with 989 yards, a 5.3-yard average and 8 TDs.

If you didn’t see the Aztecs’ 55-0 win over Hawaii you’d think this was a big offensive win. And it was very good, but to me it was even more of a defensive win. Four INTs, including two returned for a touchdown, and other plays that gave our offense an advantage. Right down to the important sack by true Freshman Kyree Woods as Hawaii was near the goal line, locking up the shut-out, the second this season.

One bit of advance good news, after the last road trip: the weather forecast says ZERO chance of rain!

Pick Six! Ron Smith and Damontae Kazee both returned INTs for TDs vs. Hawaii (Smith photo: Ken Ables, Kazee photo: USA Today Sports)

GO AZTECS!

Which Hawaii Team Will Show for Our Homecoming?

The basic formula for Hawaii football teams has been tough at home and losers on the Mainland. But this year’s Rainbow Warriors have a little different look, and they are sure not following the script in Mountain West games.

Just last Saturday, they lost to New Mexico, 28-21, in the Islands, and also lost to UNLV at home. On the flip side, they pulled off an amazing upset by beating Air Force, 34-27, at AF where the atmosphere and elevation are quite different than Honolulu. So, don’t take anything for granted, Aztecs!

Historically, the Aztecs have been fairly dominant, with a 19-9-2 record, including only 3 losses on the road. Right now, the Aztecs are on a four-game winning streak against the Islanders.

Win or lose, Hawaii has scored points, such as their game with Cal, losing a wild one, 51-31. They have a fairly balanced attack. QB Dru Brown has completed 61.2% of his passes for 1,416 yards. Three good running backs share the ground game load, led by Diocemy Saint Juste, with 691 yards and a 5.6-yard average. Behind him are two other backs, both with 340 yards. Paul Harris, who has averaged 6.7 a carry; and Steven Lakalaka, with a 4.6 average. If that name sounds familiar, his brother Ronley is a good Aztec linebacker who led the defense with 6 tackles at Logan. Will they “meet” on the field Saturday?

The 40-13 win over Utah State was played in heavy rain, so QB Christian Chapman was limited to 9 passes, completing just 4, with one of those to Quest Truxton for a TD. On the other side of our offense, despite some overconfident comments from Aggies who said the Aztecs had not faced a run defense like theirs, we rolled up a nice even 400 net yards. The other way around, Aztec defense limited Aggies to only 71 yards rushing. The two USU TDs were the first given up by our D in MW play.

Not surprisingly, DJ Pumphrey piled up 223 for a 7.0 average. Depending on which system you follow, that moved him up to #5 or #6 in NCAA history, with a good chance to climb even higher with at least four games left. Added to DJ’s big night, was the impressive performance by Juwan Washington. With Rashaad Penny taking it easy after he tweaked his ankle on a 56-yard KO return, Juwan got the #2 call and racked up 137 net yards for a 9.8-yard average, including a 64-yard run and 2 TDs.

Remember, the Hawaii game Saturday, with a 4 pm kick-off, is Homecoming, so be there!

Quest Truxton; Juwan Washington (photos by Ernie Anderson)

GO AZTECS!