Comparative Scores Aren’t Always Reliable

Our Aztecs play an important MW game against the Wyoming Cowboys Saturday in Laramie, so you start looking at scores against common opponents as a guideline.

Start with the Aztecs against UNLV in their first MW game. The Rebels were fresh from a convincing 45-20 win over Fresno State. By contrast, the Aztecs had just been upset by South Alabama, 42-24. Counter to comparative scores, the Aztecs whipped Vegas 26-7, and the Rebels’ TD was not against our defense.

Now look at Wyo’s game against UNLV the other day. The Cowboys lost that one, 69-66 in three OTs, just one point short of the all-time FBS scoring record.

So, an easy win for the Aztecs, right? No way. Betting lines favor us by about 8, but this game may well be closer. We are playing in Laramie. The elevation is 7,220 feet, as they are quick to remind you with a big message on the upper deck opposite the visitors’ bench. (OK, Rocky says elevation not a big factor in football, just basketball with more constant action.) And Wyo has been surprisingly good this season. They were 5-0 in the MW before that UNLV game, including an impressive 30-28 upset win over Boise State. They are averaging 44 points a game.

The Cowboys have a balanced offense, with 6’5” QB Josh Allen throwing for 2,216 yards, with 21 TDs and 10 INTs. Running the ball for them is one of the nation’s top RBs, Brian Hill, 6’1”, 219 lbs. Hill has run for 1,417 yards and a 5.7 average. For comparison, DJ Pumphrey tops the country with 1,779. Second to Hill is their QB with a noteworthy 429 yards.

Should be a tight game, and it’s a day game, which I like, starting at 12:30 PT. I expect us to win, of course. But not without a top effort from both our offense and defense.

The Aztecs’ 46-16 win at Nevada was impressive enough to move us into the Top 25 in both polls -- #24 in the AP and #25 in the Coaches Poll. Among the eye-popping stats were the 620 yards of total offense, with 474 on the ground. Penny was the leader this time with 208 yards; DJ next with “only” 198; and Juwan Washington had 70 on just five carries. Even with the big ground game, QB Christian Chapman completed 11 of 16 passes for 146 yards and two TDs. The defensive effort was highlighted by three key INTs against a surprisingly good Wolf Pack passing game. Holding the Pack’s running game to 90 yards was a typical effort by Rocky’s aggressive defense.

Off to Laramie where we hope the temperature will stay above freezing.

Mikah Holder TD; Aztec D (photos by Ernie Anderson)

GO AZTECS!