Aztecs Favored Over Navy, But Should Be Close Game

Check the betting lines, our Aztecs are favored by 2 to 3 points. It’s the Aztecs’ home town and home stadium; but, with San Diego being a Navy town, the Middies will have lots of vocal support, too. So the Poinsettia Bowl should be a good, close game.

Looking at comparative scores against two common opponents, you could project a more comfortable Aztec win. Navy lost to Air Force, 30-21. SDSU beat the Falcons, 30-14, with a dominating defense that held them to about half their rushing average. Navy beat San Jose State, 41-31. We manhandled the Spartans, 38-7, and had them shut out until very late in the game.

Then you can look at Navy’s impressive game against Notre Dame, losing just 49-39 in a high-scoring exchange. Obviously, the only way to find out who is best is to play the game! (You will want to be there to see for yourself!)

Another way to analyze it is to look at key performers. Aztec fans are well versed on the talent and big numbers chalked up by Donnel Pumphrey. We know, too, how a shoulder injury hampered Quinn Kaehler most of the year, and the receivers were not always at their best – except for Ezell Ruffin, but he was sidelined with a broken collar bone.

Navy? An option team heavy on the run. QB Keenan Reynolds averaged 5.1 yards a carry in rolling up 1,182 yards rushing, including 21 TDs. They don’t pass a lot, and Reynolds completed only 47.1% of his passes for 82.6 yards a game. As a team, they averaged 345.1 yards a game rushing, with an amazing average of 6.2 yards a carry! So, look out.

I’m confident our Aztecs will win, probably by a fairly narrow margin. But, hey, a W is a W, and rolling up another 8-5 season, topped off with our fifth straight bowl game is not bad.

Will it be déjà vu all over again? Ronnie Hillman, with help from Nik Embernate (#68) and the Aztec OL, rushed for 228 yards and scored four TDs (3 rush, 1 rec.) in the Aztecs’ 35-14 victory over Navy in the 2010 Poinsettia Bowl (photo by Ernie Anderson).

DJ Pumphrey needs just 88 yards in the Poinsettia Bowl to break George Jones’ Aztec single-season rushing record (photo by Ken Ables)

An Aztec victory would make Quinn Kaehler the first Aztec QB to win two bowl games; Ezell Ruffin has been a steadying influence on the young Aztec receiving corps
(photos by Ken Ables)

GO AZTECS!